It has been more than 3 days since the last conflict between India and Pakistan happened. Although there are still possibilities of escalation, it can be concluded to fare extent that the escalation is not having a large probability of happening at least in the near future.
India's security advisor, Mr Ajit Dobhal has always stood for change in strategy in India's defence from being Defensive action to Aggressive defence. Though India's retaliation against the attack on military base at URI two years back is an example of the same, the action was taken by Indian Army this time is not only is much larger in magnitude but also is aggressive enough that it can't be denied by the Pakistan Army as non existent as they did the last time (so much so that the info was first provided by the Pakistan Army General itself via a twitter post).
Now a common mind would like to gauge the event in simple terms of victory and defeat, in today's world any change in defence strategy of a nation is not done overnight and even if planned, to execute such a change and hold its ground that it now demands a shift from the counterpart(s) in your favour deserves an applause. However, one should not underscore the fact that such a huge task is done by one man or a single institution. It has to be noted that this was possible only because of measured and well-directed actions taken by the national forces armed and unarmed.
Pre-Emptive Strike - Not Revenge
As stated by the MEA on its short media briefing the attack was a preemptive strike against terrorist camps in Pakistan administered regions. However, one should note that did start their statement mentioning the Pulwama attacks. The statement did say that it was revenge action but rather leveraged the heinous attack as a justification of the military action taken against non-military targets. This is very important as every nation including Pakistan had denigrated the attacks that took place in Pulwama, the statement justified India's action using the recent attack as context. Sure, News channels put it as an act of revenge by the Indian Army, one should remember that Indian Army and any other army for that matter is a professional institute and cannot take such serious actions emotionally. The putting up of Pulwama attack as context and the statement being given by MEA and not Army, it also tacitly directed other nations to condemn the Pulwama attack in their response statements (international response to this action was almost certainly anticipated to be asking both the nations to reduce escalation).
The Response of Pakistan Army and PAF
Pakistan response was to an extent immature and very anxious. First, the news was broken by Pakistan Army via twitter handle. Two tweets given by the general seemed towards demanding either attention from media or a panic response to let people know that India has infiltrated the Pakistan Air Space as it was done in the early morning hours. In the first case, it shows unprofessionalism on the part of the Army general. If its the second case, it is the responsibility of the PAF to take care of any enemy attack. If they wanted to guide their people against any attack that might follow or would have seemed that India has declared an undeclared war it should have directed suitable actions to the civilians which it did not. This shows that the Pakistan army not only failed to defend their skies but had no proper planning on how such information should be handled.
Pakistan then questioned the toll of deaths and validity of the attack saying that retaliatory action foiled the attack and hence no damage to lives or infrastructure happened. But if the Indian Jets were stopped comprehensively why did they instead of going back to their side went to direct their forces at two more locations in Pakistan? Moreover, not a single aircraft was damaged (even though there are unverifiable claims by Pak Media) and in their statement, it was mentioned that PAF took counteraction, not specifying any damage inflicted on IAF. But the biggest foil that PAF did was in anxiety launched an attack the very next day. What were their targets? None specific. In their own statement, they said that it was to show that if India can come inside their territory so can they.
This shows an emotional rather than a calculative action. This also shows that tremendous pressure on Pakistan army building from the inside as the people now questioned their capability and preparedness to guard the nation. This should be highlighted because such huge dent on the national army puts grave the trust that the people have on the nation at grave risk. If people start believing that the nation cannot protect them, this will erode the strength of the system itself and power instead of residing in the institution will trickle down leading to the emergence of regional warlords as it happened in African countries after WWII.
The Jet Showdown
As explained the PAF Jets that infiltrated the Indian Air Space were tasked to show the strength. The retaliation by the Indian Army and the dogfight that caused the destruction of One Mig-21 for India and One F-16 to Pakistan clearly shows that if effective action is taken towards air infiltration what happens. Even though the loss in financial terms to PAF was much greater to that of IAF since MIGs are oldest planes in IAF, F-16s are much newer and advanced planes and to lose one MIG to an F-16 highlight the skill difference in the pilots of IAF and PAF. This is the first time the two nations had an air fight since the '70s and India has come far ahead. After the showdown, while Pakistan has cordoned off its entire airspace for nearly two days. India after shutting downing some airports in the north, resumed civil operations again. This shows that Indian army was very much confident of protecting its skies and also that it read the attack and in general, the intent of PAF very accurately as later in that day both the army generals and Pakistan PM were asking for peace and de-escalation.
On the other hand, India did stand its ground on the primary action taken by the IAF. It still said that the action that IAF took was non-military while that taken by PAF was military and qualifies for an act of war.
Implications of the action
Not only this, in anxious retaliatory action, PAK used weapons which were sourced from the US for the F-16s and were to be used only for defensive action as per contract. This puts PAF in a bad position as first, Pakistan will have to pay penalties to the US for violating the contract. If it would have been some other country it would not have had such a big problem but with the US, it puts future purchases of weapons much more difficult. Second, now other countries like Russia and China will use this to extract more money from Pakistan for their weapons and put it under tighter controls. Third, India will use this violated use of weaponry by Pakistan to get more weapons at better terms. Fourth, Pakistan has stated that it will use its nuclear weapons only in defence and will not use it first. This action puts its position in question as it shows Pakistan does not have the ability to handle external pressure and use its arsenal as per international laws. In short, Pakistan is incapable of handling its nuclear warheads.
Next, the conventional idea of using terrorism as a state weapon against India is now under greater international pressure for Pakistan. Now the message sent is that if you don't act against them, India will. Unlike Kargil when India was under international pressure not to cross the LOC and lost many soldiers because of that, India has shown that they can now cross the LOC and attack against any terrorist camp whether by ground (as in URI) or via Airspace and that along with the International Opinion in its favour. That is a huge shift.
Pakistan will now have to shift its terror camps away. Its camps are now no safe havens and recruitment will be much difficult. It has to invest more on radars and conventional defence mechanisms and strengthen its army putting more pressure on already dwindling resources. They cannot avoid it and have to plan for not only today but for the future as well. Though the Indian Army has physically targetted the terror camps, psychologically it has impacted its chief backer that is the Pakistan Army. Any attack by terrorists will now not just be responded in increased shelling on the LOC. It will be targeted on its foundations.
Pakistan if not immediately, will now have to do major tweaks in its Kashmir strategy. From aggression its now on the defensive stand. It will take great leadership to change its course and bring about cutting in money from Army corruption. This will not be taken well especially in the lower pyramid of the money distribution. Amid pressure from its own people and international laws and media, Imran Khan had to give the captured officer. He used it to paint a better picture of himself and as a peace gesture. India, however, had a very good understanding of Pakistan's position and instead stated that negotiation and terrorism will not go together. This stand even in the event of peace gesture asks for credible action from Pakistan which already is under serious pressure.
What to expect Now
PAF will not do any retaliation as they have asked for peace to be reinstated. India, on the other hand, is still on its first stand, they will inflict action on them so the ball is in India's court. Pakistan army will retaliate on border via ceasefire violations but that is something predictable if not time then at least place. Any major terror strike if carried out again will put Pakistan under serious International pressure. They already have a serious financial issue and any sanctions will give China and Saudi Arabia so much leverage that they will literally take all natural resources from Pakistan and the countries interest will be at stake. Army has a long history of a coup and in order to create public opinion will stage another. This will fragment the country among army generals that if uncontrolled will lead to an implosion and hence a civil war.
Imran Khan has come to power with the notion of New Pakistan and of change. It's best for him to control the situation and bring about peace in the nation. He needs money and resources for that and needs to keep the army officials happy. With Elections behind him, he probably has time in his favour, on the other hand, Mr Modi has an election on the head
General Elections 2019
Everybody is talking about the fact that this "surgical strike 2.0" will benefit the BJP in the coming elections. And it will. But the recent hand out of cash to farmers will probably effect much more. However, what is interesting is that almost all political parties rallied behind the government for its move against Pakistan. The fact that people approved the aggression or rather say aggressive defence of India signals a fact that this strategy will get political backing. This shows that this change in external policy is not a short term thing and will be taken forward regardless of the government. Modi govt. will benefit from this no doubt but in getting the benefit if they change the stance of the external policy and military action towards Pakistan to a more assertive action if not an aggressive one, it's great.
Last but not Least - MEA
The ministry and its job that it did for the past 4.5 years and even before that has resulted in a more domestic victory. It has leveraged its position among all the nations especially among the powerful VETO members of the UN that they instead of INDIA have put forth the banning of Mansoor Assad. Even China who has long-standing interests in Pakistan is now recalculating its position. Sushma swaraj's statements with China Russia meet and OIC meet did isolate the nation of Pakistan and even after military actions India was favoured. The work of the ministry should be one of the most important in these times and is pivotal to India's success.
The events have really marked a new era in INDO-PAK relationship and will be interesting to see where it leads to.
India's security advisor, Mr Ajit Dobhal has always stood for change in strategy in India's defence from being Defensive action to Aggressive defence. Though India's retaliation against the attack on military base at URI two years back is an example of the same, the action was taken by Indian Army this time is not only is much larger in magnitude but also is aggressive enough that it can't be denied by the Pakistan Army as non existent as they did the last time (so much so that the info was first provided by the Pakistan Army General itself via a twitter post).
Now a common mind would like to gauge the event in simple terms of victory and defeat, in today's world any change in defence strategy of a nation is not done overnight and even if planned, to execute such a change and hold its ground that it now demands a shift from the counterpart(s) in your favour deserves an applause. However, one should not underscore the fact that such a huge task is done by one man or a single institution. It has to be noted that this was possible only because of measured and well-directed actions taken by the national forces armed and unarmed.
Pre-Emptive Strike - Not Revenge
As stated by the MEA on its short media briefing the attack was a preemptive strike against terrorist camps in Pakistan administered regions. However, one should note that did start their statement mentioning the Pulwama attacks. The statement did say that it was revenge action but rather leveraged the heinous attack as a justification of the military action taken against non-military targets. This is very important as every nation including Pakistan had denigrated the attacks that took place in Pulwama, the statement justified India's action using the recent attack as context. Sure, News channels put it as an act of revenge by the Indian Army, one should remember that Indian Army and any other army for that matter is a professional institute and cannot take such serious actions emotionally. The putting up of Pulwama attack as context and the statement being given by MEA and not Army, it also tacitly directed other nations to condemn the Pulwama attack in their response statements (international response to this action was almost certainly anticipated to be asking both the nations to reduce escalation).
The Response of Pakistan Army and PAF
Pakistan response was to an extent immature and very anxious. First, the news was broken by Pakistan Army via twitter handle. Two tweets given by the general seemed towards demanding either attention from media or a panic response to let people know that India has infiltrated the Pakistan Air Space as it was done in the early morning hours. In the first case, it shows unprofessionalism on the part of the Army general. If its the second case, it is the responsibility of the PAF to take care of any enemy attack. If they wanted to guide their people against any attack that might follow or would have seemed that India has declared an undeclared war it should have directed suitable actions to the civilians which it did not. This shows that the Pakistan army not only failed to defend their skies but had no proper planning on how such information should be handled.
Pakistan then questioned the toll of deaths and validity of the attack saying that retaliatory action foiled the attack and hence no damage to lives or infrastructure happened. But if the Indian Jets were stopped comprehensively why did they instead of going back to their side went to direct their forces at two more locations in Pakistan? Moreover, not a single aircraft was damaged (even though there are unverifiable claims by Pak Media) and in their statement, it was mentioned that PAF took counteraction, not specifying any damage inflicted on IAF. But the biggest foil that PAF did was in anxiety launched an attack the very next day. What were their targets? None specific. In their own statement, they said that it was to show that if India can come inside their territory so can they.
This shows an emotional rather than a calculative action. This also shows that tremendous pressure on Pakistan army building from the inside as the people now questioned their capability and preparedness to guard the nation. This should be highlighted because such huge dent on the national army puts grave the trust that the people have on the nation at grave risk. If people start believing that the nation cannot protect them, this will erode the strength of the system itself and power instead of residing in the institution will trickle down leading to the emergence of regional warlords as it happened in African countries after WWII.
The Jet Showdown
As explained the PAF Jets that infiltrated the Indian Air Space were tasked to show the strength. The retaliation by the Indian Army and the dogfight that caused the destruction of One Mig-21 for India and One F-16 to Pakistan clearly shows that if effective action is taken towards air infiltration what happens. Even though the loss in financial terms to PAF was much greater to that of IAF since MIGs are oldest planes in IAF, F-16s are much newer and advanced planes and to lose one MIG to an F-16 highlight the skill difference in the pilots of IAF and PAF. This is the first time the two nations had an air fight since the '70s and India has come far ahead. After the showdown, while Pakistan has cordoned off its entire airspace for nearly two days. India after shutting downing some airports in the north, resumed civil operations again. This shows that Indian army was very much confident of protecting its skies and also that it read the attack and in general, the intent of PAF very accurately as later in that day both the army generals and Pakistan PM were asking for peace and de-escalation.
On the other hand, India did stand its ground on the primary action taken by the IAF. It still said that the action that IAF took was non-military while that taken by PAF was military and qualifies for an act of war.
Implications of the action
Not only this, in anxious retaliatory action, PAK used weapons which were sourced from the US for the F-16s and were to be used only for defensive action as per contract. This puts PAF in a bad position as first, Pakistan will have to pay penalties to the US for violating the contract. If it would have been some other country it would not have had such a big problem but with the US, it puts future purchases of weapons much more difficult. Second, now other countries like Russia and China will use this to extract more money from Pakistan for their weapons and put it under tighter controls. Third, India will use this violated use of weaponry by Pakistan to get more weapons at better terms. Fourth, Pakistan has stated that it will use its nuclear weapons only in defence and will not use it first. This action puts its position in question as it shows Pakistan does not have the ability to handle external pressure and use its arsenal as per international laws. In short, Pakistan is incapable of handling its nuclear warheads.
Next, the conventional idea of using terrorism as a state weapon against India is now under greater international pressure for Pakistan. Now the message sent is that if you don't act against them, India will. Unlike Kargil when India was under international pressure not to cross the LOC and lost many soldiers because of that, India has shown that they can now cross the LOC and attack against any terrorist camp whether by ground (as in URI) or via Airspace and that along with the International Opinion in its favour. That is a huge shift.
Pakistan will now have to shift its terror camps away. Its camps are now no safe havens and recruitment will be much difficult. It has to invest more on radars and conventional defence mechanisms and strengthen its army putting more pressure on already dwindling resources. They cannot avoid it and have to plan for not only today but for the future as well. Though the Indian Army has physically targetted the terror camps, psychologically it has impacted its chief backer that is the Pakistan Army. Any attack by terrorists will now not just be responded in increased shelling on the LOC. It will be targeted on its foundations.
Pakistan if not immediately, will now have to do major tweaks in its Kashmir strategy. From aggression its now on the defensive stand. It will take great leadership to change its course and bring about cutting in money from Army corruption. This will not be taken well especially in the lower pyramid of the money distribution. Amid pressure from its own people and international laws and media, Imran Khan had to give the captured officer. He used it to paint a better picture of himself and as a peace gesture. India, however, had a very good understanding of Pakistan's position and instead stated that negotiation and terrorism will not go together. This stand even in the event of peace gesture asks for credible action from Pakistan which already is under serious pressure.
What to expect Now
PAF will not do any retaliation as they have asked for peace to be reinstated. India, on the other hand, is still on its first stand, they will inflict action on them so the ball is in India's court. Pakistan army will retaliate on border via ceasefire violations but that is something predictable if not time then at least place. Any major terror strike if carried out again will put Pakistan under serious International pressure. They already have a serious financial issue and any sanctions will give China and Saudi Arabia so much leverage that they will literally take all natural resources from Pakistan and the countries interest will be at stake. Army has a long history of a coup and in order to create public opinion will stage another. This will fragment the country among army generals that if uncontrolled will lead to an implosion and hence a civil war.
Imran Khan has come to power with the notion of New Pakistan and of change. It's best for him to control the situation and bring about peace in the nation. He needs money and resources for that and needs to keep the army officials happy. With Elections behind him, he probably has time in his favour, on the other hand, Mr Modi has an election on the head
General Elections 2019
Everybody is talking about the fact that this "surgical strike 2.0" will benefit the BJP in the coming elections. And it will. But the recent hand out of cash to farmers will probably effect much more. However, what is interesting is that almost all political parties rallied behind the government for its move against Pakistan. The fact that people approved the aggression or rather say aggressive defence of India signals a fact that this strategy will get political backing. This shows that this change in external policy is not a short term thing and will be taken forward regardless of the government. Modi govt. will benefit from this no doubt but in getting the benefit if they change the stance of the external policy and military action towards Pakistan to a more assertive action if not an aggressive one, it's great.
Last but not Least - MEA
The ministry and its job that it did for the past 4.5 years and even before that has resulted in a more domestic victory. It has leveraged its position among all the nations especially among the powerful VETO members of the UN that they instead of INDIA have put forth the banning of Mansoor Assad. Even China who has long-standing interests in Pakistan is now recalculating its position. Sushma swaraj's statements with China Russia meet and OIC meet did isolate the nation of Pakistan and even after military actions India was favoured. The work of the ministry should be one of the most important in these times and is pivotal to India's success.
The events have really marked a new era in INDO-PAK relationship and will be interesting to see where it leads to.
